Airlines don’t talk about fuel the way they used to. SAF has changed that conversation entirely, and the October 2026 numbers explain why procurement teams are paying closer attention than ever.

China’s SAF is priced at USD 2,037.00 per metric ton on a FOB basis. India’s figure comes in at USD 2,162.70 per metric ton, quoted CIF. That’s a difference of USD 125.70 per ton. Small on a single shipment. Not small once you’re buying at scale.

SAF isn’t cheap fuel, and it was never going to be. Producing it from waste oils, agricultural residues, or synthetic pathways costs more than refining crude into jet fuel. Every airline chasing emissions targets right now is absorbing that premium somewhere, whether it shows up on a ticket price or a corporate sustainability report.

What the China and India Figures Actually Show

China’s price is FOB. That means the buyer picks up freight and insurance costs once the fuel leaves the port. India’s is CIF, so those costs sit inside the quoted number already. Comparing the two directly isn’t quite fair, and that’s worth remembering before anyone draws conclusions from the raw figures alone.

Still, the gap tells a story. India’s higher landed cost points to longer shipping distances, heavier import reliance, or simply tighter domestic SAF production capacity right now. China’s lower FOB number suggests a market closer to its own feedstock and refining base.

Why SAF Costs What It Costs

Three things drive SAF pricing more than anything else.

Feedstock availability sits at the top. Used cooking oil, animal fats, and agricultural waste all compete for the same limited supply pool. When demand for these feedstocks rises across biodiesel and other industries too, SAF producers feel the squeeze first.

Production technology matters just as much. Hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids, known as HEFA, remain the dominant SAF pathway today. Newer methods like power-to-liquid or alcohol-to-jet are still scaling up, and until they reach commercial volume, HEFA’s cost structure essentially sets the floor for SAF pricing everywhere.

Then there’s policy. Blending mandates in the EU and growing pressure in Asia push airlines toward SAF whether the economics are comfortable or not. That demand floor keeps prices elevated even when crude oil itself softens.

Shipping adds its own layer. SAF moves through specialized logistics chains, and fewer certified handling facilities exist compared to conventional jet fuel. Freight costs on a thinner network run higher almost by default.

What This Means If You’re Buying or Watching This Market

Airlines and fuel buyers reading the October figures should think past the sticker price. A lower FOB number in China looks appealing, but supply reliability and certification standards matter just as much as the quote itself. SAF contracts tend to run longer than traditional jet fuel deals, so locking in a price today means living with it for a while.

Investors tracking the SAF space should watch India’s number closely. A higher landed cost often signals room for local production growth, and a handful of Indian refiners have already begun exploring SAF capacity to reduce that import dependence. If that capacity comes online, the China-India spread could narrow faster than most forecasts expect.

Corporate sustainability teams calculating offset strategies need current pricing too. SAF costs factor directly into carbon accounting models, and using stale data here throws off budget planning months down the line.

Where SAF Pricing Heads Next

Nobody can call this market with total certainty, and anyone claiming otherwise is overselling their forecast.

What seems likely: feedstock competition keeps tightening as more industries chase the same limited supply of waste oils and residues. Mandates aren’t going away either, not in Europe and increasingly not in parts of Asia. That combination points toward continued upward pressure on SAF prices through the rest of 2026, even if the pace of increase slows.

The China-India gap probably holds for now. Closing it would need either a jump in Indian domestic capacity or a shift in how China’s feedstock costs move. Neither happens overnight.

Closing Thoughts

October 2026 puts China’s SAF at USD 2,037.00/MT FOB and India’s at USD 2,162.70/MT CIF. The gap reflects incoterm differences, import reliance, and production capacity gaps between the two markets, not random noise. The SAF price trend is only going to matter more as airlines lock in long-term supply deals, so treating these numbers as a snapshot rather than a forecast is the smart move for anyone buying or investing in this space.

FAQ

What is the current SAF price trend in China and India?
As of October 2026, China’s SAF trades at USD 2,037.00/MT on a FOB basis, while India’s sits at USD 2,162.70/MT CIF. The gap reflects differences in incoterm basis, shipping distance, and each market’s domestic production capacity.

Why is SAF more expensive in India than in China?
India’s quote includes freight and insurance since it’s CIF, unlike China’s FOB figure. India also relies more heavily on imports for its SAF supply right now, and that import dependence, combined with longer shipping routes, pushes the landed cost higher.

What drives Sustainable Aviation Fuel prices overall?
Feedstock availability, mainly used cooking oil and animal fats, sits at the center of SAF pricing. Production technology (HEFA still dominates) and government blending mandates in regions like the EU add further pressure, keeping prices elevated regardless of crude oil trends.

How often do SAF prices change?
SAF prices shift as feedstock supply and policy mandates evolve, sometimes monthly. The October 2026 figures offer a solid reference point, but buyers negotiating long-term contracts should pull updated pricing before finalizing any deal, since this market moves faster than it looks.

What’s the outlook for SAF prices going forward?
Expect continued upward pressure through the rest of 2026 as feedstock competition tightens and mandates expand across more regions. The China-India price gap will likely persist unless India’s domestic production capacity grows or China’s feedstock costs shift meaningfully.